Nate Silver

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19m
Salon.com
Data journalism didn’t fail: Nate Silver pushes back after The New York Times blasts him for getting Donald Trump so wrongto the "data journalism" vs. "traditional journalism" beef. Both tend to treat
Data journalism didn’t fail: Nate Silver pushes back after The New York Times blasts him for getting Donald Trump so wrong
Salon.com / Posted 19 minutes ago
to the "data journalism" vs. "traditional journalism" beef. Both tend to treat lessons drawn from a small number of recent elections as immutable laws of politics. Polling is more robust to change. — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538)... Read more
2h
Market Watch
Pundits were wrong about Trump, but polls weren’tnominee in 2016” even as the reality-TV star was going through a polling burst.
Pundits were wrong about Trump, but polls weren’t
Market Watch / Posted 2 hours ago
nominee in 2016” even as the reality-TV star was going through a polling burst. A month later, FiveThirtyEight.com’s Nate Silver wrote that “Trump’s campaign will fail by one means or another.” (The New York Times has compiled these and other... Read more
3h
Fortune
The Desperate Middle-Class Voters Who Made Trump the Republican Nomineeeconomy and alienated from the political process. In “The Mythology of Trump’s
The Desperate Middle-Class Voters Who Made Trump the Republican Nominee
Fortune / Posted 3 hours ago
economy and alienated from the political process. In “The Mythology of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support,” FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver does some analysis that tears down the preconceptions about Trump’s base. Polls have shown that Trump does better... Read more
3h
Newsmax
Ed Klein: My Travels With TrumpIndiana were attended by as many women as men. And these people were middle-cla
Ed Klein: My Travels With Trump
Newsmax / Posted 3 hours ago
Indiana were attended by as many women as men. And these people were middle-class everyday Americans. As the statistician Nate Silver recently noted in his FiveThirty-Eight blog, Trump's voters "are better off economically compared with most... Read more
7h
Salon.com
How the media got Donald Trump so wrong: It just doesn’t understand the dark side of American politicscompetition. the GOP clown car just became a porta-potty on wheels The smart
How the media got Donald Trump so wrong: It just doesn’t understand the dark side of American politics
Salon.com / Posted 7 hours ago
competition. the GOP clown car just became a porta-potty on wheels The smart numbers crunchers like Five Thirty Eight’s Nate Silver and the New York Times’ Nate Cohn dismissed Trump as a flash in the pan, with Silver writing that “our emphatic... Read more
15h
The Oklahoman
NATE SILVER: 'We basically got the Republican race wrong' Report: John Kasich to end GOP presidential bid Brazil judge orders WhatsApp
NATE SILVER: 'We basically got the Republican race wrong'
The Oklahoman / Posted 15 hours ago
Report: John Kasich to end GOP presidential bid Brazil judge orders WhatsApp blocked, affecting 100 million users Kim Jong-un bans all weddings, funerals and freedom of movement in North... Read more
18h
The Hollywood Reporter
Trump Clinches Nomination: Who Are the Media Winners and Losers?arm of the Democratic Party, hello?" The result: Trump didn't boycott a single
Trump Clinches Nomination: Who Are the Media Winners and Losers?
The Hollywood Reporter / Posted 18 hours ago
arm of the Democratic Party, hello?" The result: Trump didn't boycott a single CNN debate. THE LOSERS Five Thirty Eight's Nate Silver Big-data messiah Nate Silver has staked his professional reputation on accurate predictions. That's why, among... Read more
18h
The New Zealand Herald
12 of the most misguided US media predictions about Donald Trumpemphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination. It's not
12 of the most misguided US media predictions about Donald Trump
The New Zealand Herald / Posted 18 hours ago
emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination. It's not even clear that he's trying to do so Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight, Aug. 11 Historians looking back will peg the beginning of the end of the Trump show to his New... Read more
19h
Daily Maverick
US 2016: Indiana primary seals fate of Cruz, Kasich, Republican Party – and maybe the countryreaching deeply into a frightened, angry, job-losing underclass. Looking at exi
US 2016: Indiana primary seals fate of Cruz, Kasich, Republican Party – and maybe the country
Daily Maverick / Posted 19 hours ago
reaching deeply into a frightened, angry, job-losing underclass. Looking at exit poll survey data brought together by Nate Silver at his 538 website, his latest analysis noted, “the definition of ‘working class’ and similar terms is fuzzy, and... Read more
1777 related stories
19h
Stamford Advocate
One of the most painful lessons ever learned in finance has finally come to politicsthe traditional pundit class but also the newly crowned top dogs of the politic
One of the most painful lessons ever learned in finance has finally come to politics
Stamford Advocate / Posted 19 hours ago
the traditional pundit class but also the newly crowned top dogs of the political commentariat: the data hounds. In 2008, Nate Silver rose to fame by correctly calling the election in favor of outsider Barack Obama, a junior senator who overcame... Read more
3 related stories
20h
Connecticut Post
One of the most painful lessons ever learned in finance has finally come to politicsthe traditional pundit class but also the newly crowned top dogs of the politic
One of the most painful lessons ever learned in finance has finally come to politics
Connecticut Post / Posted 20 hours ago
the traditional pundit class but also the newly crowned top dogs of the political commentariat: the data hounds. In 2008, Nate Silver rose to fame by correctly calling the election in favor of outsider Barack Obama, a junior senator who overcame... Read more
3 related stories
20h
San Francisco Chronicle
One of the most painful lessons ever learned in finance has finally come to politicsthe traditional pundit class but also the newly crowned top dogs of the politic
One of the most painful lessons ever learned in finance has finally come to politics
San Francisco Chronicle / Posted 20 hours ago
the traditional pundit class but also the newly crowned top dogs of the political commentariat: the data hounds. In 2008, Nate Silver rose to fame by correctly calling the election in favor of outsider Barack Obama, a junior senator who overcame... Read more
3 related stories
21h
Business Insider
One of the most painful lessons ever learned in finance has finally come to politicsthe traditional pundit class but also the newly crowned top dogs of the politic
One of the most painful lessons ever learned in finance has finally come to politics
Business Insider / Posted 21 hours ago
the traditional pundit class but also the newly crowned top dogs of the political commentariat: the data hounds. In 2008, Nate Silver rose to fame by correctly calling the election in favor of outsider Barack Obama, a junior senator who overcame... Read more
3 related stories
22h
Business Insider
NATE SILVER: 'We basically got the Republican race wrong'In September 2015, writer and statistician Nate Silver urged people to "calm do
NATE SILVER: 'We basically got the Republican race wrong'
Business Insider / Posted 22 hours ago
In September 2015, writer and statistician Nate Silver urged people to "calm down" about the possibility of Donald Trump winning the Republican presidential nomination. Two months later, he wrote that the media should "stop freaking out about Donald... Read more
23h
Salon.com
The Trump-ocalypse is upon us: America can’t afford to misunderstand what his nomination meansthat Donald Trump is very likely to win the nomination in part because he’s not
The Trump-ocalypse is upon us: America can’t afford to misunderstand what his nomination means
Salon.com / Posted 23 hours ago
that Donald Trump is very likely to win the nomination in part because he’s not really a Republican,” said polling guru Nate Silver. “Trump won’t help the GOP’s eventual nominee, but—barring a third-party run—it’s hard to imagine a world in... Read more
1d
Salon.com
This is not a dream: Ted Cruz’s exit has spawned a mystifying reality — GOP nominee Donald Trumppolls, but at this point the mathematical reality confronting the Sanders campa
This is not a dream: Ted Cruz’s exit has spawned a mystifying reality — GOP nominee Donald Trump
Salon.com / Posted yesterday
polls, but at this point the mathematical reality confronting the Sanders campaign is just too daunting to overcome. As Nate Silver wrote at FiveThirtyEight, for Sanders to capture the nomination after a narrow win in Indiana, he would have to... Read more
1777 related stories
1d
Minot Daily News
Republicans should have adopted Democrats’ rules — and vice versafields. Under Democratic proportional representation rules, according to the es
Republicans should have adopted Democrats’ rules — and vice versa
Minot Daily News / Posted yesterday
fields. Under Democratic proportional representation rules, according to the estimate of FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver, under Democratic proportional representation rules, Trump would have won nearly 100 fewer delegates in contests... Read more
1d
Philly.com
Indiana and the scary, not-good normalization of Donald Trumpolder blue-collar factory workers whose jobs were outsourced to China and Mexic
Indiana and the scary, not-good normalization of Donald Trump
Philly.com / Posted yesterday
older blue-collar factory workers whose jobs were outsourced to China and Mexico -- the archetypal Trump voter. Just today, Nate Silver -- the polling analyst who became an icon in the 2012 race -- shattered some of the myths about who's really... Read more
1d
Inquirier.net
Ted Cruz quits presidential race after Trump takes IndianaSouth Dakota. “Very hard to see how Trump doesn’t get to 1,237 now,” tweeted t
Ted Cruz quits presidential race after Trump takes Indiana
Inquirier.net / Posted yesterday
South Dakota. “Very hard to see how Trump doesn’t get to 1,237 now,” tweeted the leading statistician and election analyst Nate Silver of the blog FiveThirtyEight. “He’d need to lose big in Cali, where he’s up by 20+ points.” The frontrunner has... Read more
1777 related stories
1d
Perth Now
Cruz drops out as Trump wins IndianaSouth Dakota. “Very hard to see how Trump doesn’t get to 1,237 now,” tweeted t
Cruz drops out as Trump wins Indiana
Perth Now / Posted yesterday
South Dakota. “Very hard to see how Trump doesn’t get to 1,237 now,” tweeted the leading statistician and election analyst Nate Silver of the blog FiveThirtyEight. “He’d need to lose big in Cali, where he’s up by 20+ points.” The frontrunner has... Read more
1777 related stories
1d
News.com.au
Trump crushes rivals in Indiana primarySouth Dakota. “Very hard to see how Trump doesn’t get to 1,237 now,” tweeted t
Trump crushes rivals in Indiana primary
News.com.au / Posted yesterday
South Dakota. “Very hard to see how Trump doesn’t get to 1,237 now,” tweeted the leading statistician and election analyst Nate Silver of the blog FiveThirtyEight. “He’d need to lose big in Cali, where he’s up by 20+ points.” The frontrunner has... Read more
1777 related stories
1d
New York Magazine
Trump Has Won and the Republican Party Is Brokenprojections had Trump falling well short of the 1,237 delegates he would need t
Trump Has Won and the Republican Party Is Broken
New York Magazine / Posted yesterday
projections had Trump falling well short of the 1,237 delegates he would need to win a first-ballot vote. (In mid-April, Nate Silver, whose findings were typical, projected Trump finishing with around 1160.) Trump’s lead in California, the... Read more
1d
Slate
Bernie’s Electability, Trump’s Unpredictability Dodge, and the Real Meaning of Allegory“It’s democracy. He doesn’t want to tell you what he’d do. Stop asking question
Bernie’s Electability, Trump’s Unpredictability Dodge, and the Real Meaning of Allegory
Slate / Posted yesterday
“It’s democracy. He doesn’t want to tell you what he’d do. Stop asking questions, and just elect him.” On FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver looked at median household incomes of supporters of the five major remaining presidential candidates and found... Read more
21 related stories
2d
Orange County Register
Who will win Indiana? Five views point to Trump, Clinton victories12-point margin over Sanders. FiveThirtyEight: Trump and Clinton FiveThirtyEi
Who will win Indiana? Five views point to Trump, Clinton victories
Orange County Register / Posted 2 days ago
12-point margin over Sanders. FiveThirtyEight: Trump and Clinton FiveThirtyEight, run by former New York Times stats guru Nate Silver, on Sunday gave Trump a 94-percent chance of winning Indiana after looking at recent state polls. His chances... Read more
4 related stories
2d
Greeley Tribune
Who will win Indiana? 5 views point to Trump, Clinton victorieswas projected to win by a 12-point margin over Sanders. FiveThirtyEight, run b
Who will win Indiana? 5 views point to Trump, Clinton victories
Greeley Tribune / Posted 2 days ago
was projected to win by a 12-point margin over Sanders. FiveThirtyEight, run by former New York Times stats guru Nate Silver, on Sunday gave Trump a 94 percent chance of winning Indiana after looking at recent state polls. His chances... Read more
4 related stories
3d
The Jewish Press
A First: Rasmussen Gives Trump 2-Point National Lead Over Clintonhave been criticized since its founding, in 2003, for being a “conservative-lea
A First: Rasmussen Gives Trump 2-Point National Lead Over Clinton
The Jewish Press / Posted 3 days ago
have been criticized since its founding, in 2003, for being a “conservative-leaning polling group.” Renowned pollster Nate Silver, who studied and wrote about the Rasmussen polling methods and results, concluded that they were biased to the... Read more
3d
FOX News
Karl Rove: Trump’s bluster, Cruz’s thunder and Hillary’s ‘woman card’ misstepat the week ahead. Bending the trend line Donald Trump won Tuesday’s Acela pr
Karl Rove: Trump’s bluster, Cruz’s thunder and Hillary’s ‘woman card’ misstep
FOX News / Posted 3 days ago
at the week ahead. Bending the trend line Donald Trump won Tuesday’s Acela primary with 110 delegates, seven more than Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com forecast were necessary to put him on a path to a 1,237 first-ballot victory and 16 more... Read more
3d
Chicago Tribune
Will Republicans start jumping on the Donald Trump bandwagon now?margins were large, well over 50 percent everywhere. He'll wind up with more de
Will Republicans start jumping on the Donald Trump bandwagon now?
Chicago Tribune / Posted 3 days ago
margins were large, well over 50 percent everywhere. He'll wind up with more delegates than he was projected to get; Nate Silver, at the political website FiveThirtyEight, says Trump "basically made up all the ground he lost in WI and... Read more
4d
CBC.ca
Trump represents tough choice for Indiana votersa straightforward shift to Trump as the party consolidates behind him, but admi
Trump represents tough choice for Indiana voters
CBC.ca / Posted 4 days ago
a straightforward shift to Trump as the party consolidates behind him, but admits it's impossible to know for sure. Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com leans toward the possibility that Trump's slice of the pie has not grown so much as the... Read more
5d
Salon.com
Donald Trump thinks he’s a god. Even worse, his supporters agreeone predicted that he would become the leading Republican candidate, let alone
Donald Trump thinks he’s a god. Even worse, his supporters agree
Salon.com / Posted 5 days ago
one predicted that he would become the leading Republican candidate, let alone the party’s nominee. As the statistics guru Nate Silver told Anderson Cooper in September, Trump’s chances of becoming the Republican nominee were about 5 percent. And... Read more
5d
New York Magazine
‘What’s Delegate Allocation vs. Delegate Selection?’: A GOP Nomination-Process Guru Answers Allpopular vote and the bound-delegate tally heading into the convention. Now, in
‘What’s Delegate Allocation vs. Delegate Selection?’: A GOP Nomination-Process Guru Answers All
New York Magazine / Posted 5 days ago
popular vote and the bound-delegate tally heading into the convention. Now, in terms of delegate selection, both you and Nate Silver have explained that only about a fourth of the delegates will be named by a process that gives candidates real... Read more
11 related stories
6d
The Berkeley Daily Planet
5 Things We’ve Learned About Republicans. Categoryfollowed by surgeon Ben Carson (4 percent) and New Jersey Governor Chris Christ
5 Things We’ve Learned About Republicans. Category
The Berkeley Daily Planet / Posted 6 days ago
followed by surgeon Ben Carson (4 percent) and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (4 percent). At the time, pollster Nate Silver observed that most of these candidates had approval ratings that are “net-negative,” unfavorability ratings... Read more
6d
The Economic Times
A path to nomination, narrow as it is, emerges for Donald Trumpabout Trump's chances as at any point in the election cycle," wrote the influen
A path to nomination, narrow as it is, emerges for Donald Trump
The Economic Times / Posted 6 days ago
about Trump's chances as at any point in the election cycle," wrote the influential statistician and election analyst Nate Silver on the political blog FiveThirtyEight. The will-he-or-won't-he debate has focused on whether Trump can win a... Read more
2621 related stories
6d
Raw Story
It’s time for the Sanders campaign to stop grifting and start negotiatingget a job, then there will never be a better time than now or perhaps after nex
It’s time for the Sanders campaign to stop grifting and start negotiating
Raw Story / Posted 6 days ago
get a job, then there will never be a better time than now or perhaps after next week’s Indiana primary that poll wizard Nate Silver gives Hillary Clinton a 87 percent of winning. It’s better to walk away with a win or two early than for Bernie... Read more
7d
Op-Ed News
5 Things We've Learned About Republicansfollowed by surgeon Ben Carson (4 percent) and New Jersey Governor Chris Christ
5 Things We've Learned About Republicans
Op-Ed News / Posted 7 days ago
followed by surgeon Ben Carson (4 percent) and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (4 percent). At the time, pollster Nate Silver observed that most of these candidates had approval ratings that are "net-negative," unfavorability ratings... Read more
7d
Denver Post
In Tuesday's primaries, Trump made up lost groundmargins were large, well over 50 percent everywhere. He'll wind up with more de
In Tuesday's primaries, Trump made up lost ground
Denver Post / Posted 7 days ago
margins were large, well over 50 percent everywhere. He'll wind up with more delegates than he was projected to get; Nate Silver says Trump "basically made up all the ground he lost in" Wisconsin and Colorado. It's also encouraging for him... Read more
7d
Denver Post
Bernstein: In Tuesday's primaries, Trump made up lost groundmargins were large, well over 50 percent everywhere. He'll wind up with more de
Bernstein: In Tuesday's primaries, Trump made up lost ground
Denver Post / Posted 7 days ago
margins were large, well over 50 percent everywhere. He'll wind up with more delegates than he was projected to get; Nate Silver says Trump "basically made up all the ground he lost in" Wisconsin and Colorado. It's also encouraging for him... Read more
8d
Business Insider
Eye-popping stat shows the extent of Donald Trump’s dominationin the Keystone State, based on prior pledges from the candidates, he far excee
Eye-popping stat shows the extent of Donald Trump’s domination
Business Insider / Posted 8 days ago
in the Keystone State, based on prior pledges from the candidates, he far exceeded expectations. Renowned statistician Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight projected going into the night that Trump would finish the East-Coast swing — including New... Read more
8d
National Catholic Reporter
The I-95, Northeast corridor primary: Trump and Clinton romptrump bluster. There is something tone deaf about Clinton and her team, and the
The I-95, Northeast corridor primary: Trump and Clinton romp
National Catholic Reporter / Posted 8 days ago
trump bluster. There is something tone deaf about Clinton and her team, and they need to fix that and fix it soon. Yes, Nate Silver says that it is almost impossible for Trump to beat Clinton. But, there were some troubling numbers last night... Read more
2621 related stories
8d
National Catholic Reporter
The I-95, Northeast Corridor Primary: Trump & Clinton Romptrump bluster. There is something tone deaf about Clinton and her team and they
The I-95, Northeast Corridor Primary: Trump & Clinton Romp
National Catholic Reporter / Posted 8 days ago
trump bluster. There is something tone deaf about Clinton and her team and they need to fix that and fix it soon. Yes, Nate Silver says that it is almost impossible for Trump to beat Clinton. But, there were some troubling numbers last night... Read more
2621 related stories
8d
Stamford Advocate
Donald Trump had a bigger night than anyone expected — and he’s in his strongest position in weeksto sweep the day's five primary contests, winning in Connecticut, Maryland, Rho
Donald Trump had a bigger night than anyone expected — and he’s in his strongest position in weeks
Stamford Advocate / Posted 8 days ago
to sweep the day's five primary contests, winning in Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, Delaware, and Pennsylvania. Nate Silver, of the data-journalism website FiveThirtyEight, noted that Trump's delegate margins are now large enough that he... Read more
2621 related stories
8d
Connecticut Post
Donald Trump had a bigger night than anyone expected — and he’s in his strongest position in weeksto sweep the day's five primary contests, winning in Connecticut, Maryland, Rho
Donald Trump had a bigger night than anyone expected — and he’s in his strongest position in weeks
Connecticut Post / Posted 8 days ago
to sweep the day's five primary contests, winning in Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, Delaware, and Pennsylvania. Nate Silver, of the data-journalism website FiveThirtyEight, noted that Trump's delegate margins are now large enough that he... Read more
2621 related stories
8d
San Francisco Chronicle
Donald Trump had a bigger night than anyone expected — and he’s in his strongest position in weeksto sweep the day's five primary contests, winning in Connecticut, Maryland, Rho
Donald Trump had a bigger night than anyone expected — and he’s in his strongest position in weeks
San Francisco Chronicle / Posted 8 days ago
to sweep the day's five primary contests, winning in Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, Delaware, and Pennsylvania. Nate Silver, of the data-journalism website FiveThirtyEight, noted that Trump's delegate margins are now large enough that he... Read more
2621 related stories
8d
Business Insider
Donald Trump had a bigger night than anyone expected — and he’s in his strongest position in weeksto sweep the day's five primary contests, winning in Connecticut, Maryland, Rho
Donald Trump had a bigger night than anyone expected — and he’s in his strongest position in weeks
Business Insider / Posted 8 days ago
to sweep the day's five primary contests, winning in Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, Delaware, and Pennsylvania. Nate Silver, of the data-journalism website FiveThirtyEight, noted that Trump's delegate margins are now large enough that he... Read more
2621 related stories
8d
Stamford Advocate
Hillary Clinton is on track for another big nightus," Clinton said. Tuesday's wins could put Clinton even closer to securing th
Hillary Clinton is on track for another big night
Stamford Advocate / Posted 8 days ago
us," Clinton said. Tuesday's wins could put Clinton even closer to securing the Democratic nomination. FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver reported that going into Tuesday's races, Sanders already needed to capture 58% of the remaining pledged... Read more
4 related stories
8d
Connecticut Post
Hillary Clinton is on track for another big nightus," Clinton said. Tuesday's wins could put Clinton even closer to securing th
Hillary Clinton is on track for another big night
Connecticut Post / Posted 8 days ago
us," Clinton said. Tuesday's wins could put Clinton even closer to securing the Democratic nomination. FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver reported that going into Tuesday's races, Sanders already needed to capture 58% of the remaining pledged... Read more
4 related stories
8d
New York Magazine
Clinton Draws Closer to Nomination With Net Delegate Gains in the Northeastless-than-expected margin, and in Maryland, the second-largest state, where she
Clinton Draws Closer to Nomination With Net Delegate Gains in the Northeast
New York Magazine / Posted 8 days ago
less-than-expected margin, and in Maryland, the second-largest state, where she won by a surprisingly wide 2 to 1. Overall, Nate Silver estimates that she will add to her pledged delegate lead over Sanders by more than 50, pushing it back up towards... Read more
8d
Business Insider
Hillary Clinton is on track for another big nightSen. Bernie Sanders. Tuesday's wins could put Clinton even closer to securing
Hillary Clinton is on track for another big night
Business Insider / Posted 8 days ago
Sen. Bernie Sanders. Tuesday's wins could put Clinton even closer to securing the Democratic nomination. FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver reported that going into Tuesday's races, Sanders already needed to capture 58% of the remaining pledged... Read more
4 related stories
8d
Business Insider
Here comes another slew of major primaries ...lead in most polls in Tuesday's contests will make Sanders' path to the nominat
Here comes another slew of major primaries ...
Business Insider / Posted 8 days ago
lead in most polls in Tuesday's contests will make Sanders' path to the nomination event steeper. As FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver pointed out, Sanders needs to win over 58% of remaining pledged delegates to win, requiring massive upsets in... Read more
91 related stories
9d
New York Magazine
Trump’s Biggest Con: The Nominating System Is Rigged!of the forces arrayed against him coincide with the mainstream media's own limi
Trump’s Biggest Con: The Nominating System Is Rigged!
New York Magazine / Posted 9 days ago
of the forces arrayed against him coincide with the mainstream media's own limitations and needs, as FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver recently pointed out: It also helps that Trump’s system-is-rigged message is relatively simple and plays into... Read more
2621 related stories
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