Our latest brief update on TC Iggy

Tropical Cyclone Iggy, which was responsible for producing tornadoes across Indonesia, will brush by Western Australia and produce heavy rain and storm surge. The threat remains for Tropical Cyclone Iggy to bring Western Australia's northwestern tip hurricane strength winds and unleash flooding rainfall over the next couple of days thewatchers.adorraeli.com US: Problems Plague Cleanup at Hanford Nuclear Waste Site www.sott.net US to begin large-scale emergency perparedness drills for New Madrid fault region theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com Britain -- Arctic blasts could bring big freeze for a MONTH iceagenow.info hisz.rsoe.hu Leftovers: Local gov'ts testing school lunches AFTER children have already eaten -Yomiuri enenews.com

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MAIN POINTS The Monsoon trough will reformat itself and re-organise over northern Cape York early next week. (1) A vigorous NW monsoonal pulse is on its way and should arrive mid week next week focussed on the Gulf and Coral Sea. (2) This pulse will deepen the MT and create increased potential for cyclogenesis. (3) Steering flow over Northern Coral Sea will push developing systems next week to the east or south east - longer term the steering pattern may change, also if systems develop further south, the steering pattern is lighter and more varied. (4) In the Gulf we also see increasing cyclogenesis potential but the steering flow is a lot weaker and more variable. (5) Very high potential rainfall over FNQ, Gulf country and even possibly extending as far south as the HLB forecast districts. (6) The monsoon trough will move southward later next week.

Iggy is expected to still deepen as it heads into an area of very weak vertical wind shear and aligns itself under an upper anticyclone to the NW of Exmouth. At this stage models are trending to the west in their forecast tracks and there appears to be a significant probability of this tropical cyclone not crossing the coast. However at this time it is too early to dismiss a crossing over the far western Pilbara and residents particularly between Exmouth to Onslow need to remain very vigilant in case the steering flow changes again.

Website - www.MrHurricaneTracker.webs.com Facebook - http Iggy is strengthening slowly as it moves slowly southeast towards Western Australia, later intensifying to 80 knots before veering away south. There is uncertainty as to how far east the storm will progress beforehand. Western Australia warnings A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Mardie to Ningaloo including Exmouth and Onslow. A Cyclone WATCH extends east to Port Hedland and south to Coral Bay. BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Mardie and Coral Bay including the communities of Mardie, Onslow, Exmouth and Coral Bay need to prepare for cyclonic weather Warning 07 from JTWC at 1500 GMT Position 19.1S 110.7E Location 270 miles NW of Learmonth, Australia Movement 145° (SSE) at 6 knots Maximum sustained winds 55 knots gusting to 70 knots Comparative strength Tropical storm Winds of 34 knots or higher occur within 90 to 115 miles of the centre Threatened landmasses Western Australia Maximum siginificant wave height is 23 feet Next warning from JTWC at 2100 GMT

MAIN POINTS the monsoon trough reorganises itself over far North Queensland early next week and a deep NW flow feeds into it from the north. That NW flow extends vertically to 500Hpa and should push any developing LOWS to the east or south-east next week. Next weekend the upper flow changes and we start to see upper level easterlies over the Coral Sea and thus the potential for any developing systems to push back towards the east coast. A system could also develop in the Gulf Of carpentaria and with a weak steering flow could move randomly, slowly and erratically creating massive falls of rain if it develops near the Gulf coastline. Stay watching for our next update at 9:30PM Queensland time tomorrow night. A new Iggy update should be issued tomorrow around lunch time.

www.28storms.com & www.twitter.com analysis of Cyclone Iggy

Main Points (1) Iggy has begun to move SE under the influence of monsoonal westerlies to its north. (2) Iggy should continue to deepen gradually and push SE before undergoing more rapid strengthening in 24-48 hours time as it aligns under an upper HIGH. (3) Longer term ensemble modelling is trending towards a coastal crossing further to the east than 24 hours ago. Between Exmouth and Karratha within the next 5 days. (4) There is still a 30 - 40% chance that this system will not hit the coast, but gales and damaging winds should be experienced on parts of the Pilbara coast regardless.

Latest model guidance suggests that a recurve to the west is not a done deal. A number of global models are now putting Iggy on the coast as a significant cat3/4 tropical cyclone in the medium term. Remember to watch and share our update at 9:30PM Queensland time on this potential situation.

MAIN POINTS (1) NT LOW crossed the coast in the creation of this update. It is now expected to move SE and into Queensland or the Gulf within the next 3-4 days. (2) TC very likely to develop in Indian Ocean, very unlikely to cross the coast. It is also likely to attain severe status. (3) A new LOW could develop just off the Kimberley coastline in 5-7 days

Talia was the winner of the "Cyclone Jr. Reporter" contest and received four free tickets to Iowa State Women's Basketball game vs. Texas A&M, the opportunity to interview women's basketball player Chelsea Poppens and had her interview shown on the video board at Hilton Coliseum.

Australia Live - Weather update & Ex-Tropical Cyclone Heidi Join our on-aire team as we cover all the lated weather around Australia and ex- Tropical Cyclone Heidi is still bringing heavy rain and wind to areas of WA. For more information go to www.weatherchannel.com.au

Winds hit 150 kilometres per hour as Cyclone Heidi struck Western Australia's north-west.

Cyclone Heidi, at 5am, 12 Jan, 2012, as seen from FMG work camp 25, Port Hedland, W.Australia.